Central to our approach are new explicit Stein factor bounds on the solutions of Poisson equations.

Gibbs measures, such as Coulomb gases, are popular in modelling systems of interacting particles. Recently, we proposed to use Gibbs measures as randomized numerical integration algorithms with respect to a target measure $π$ on $\mathbb R^d$, following the heuristics that repulsiveness between particles should help reduce integration errors. A major issue in this approach is to tune the interaction kernel and confining potential of the Gibbs measure, so that the equilibrium measure of the system is the target distribution $π$. Doing so usually requires another Monte Carlo approximation of the \emph{potential}, i.e. the integral of the interaction kernel with respect to $π$. Using the methodology of large deviations from Garcia--Zelada (2019), we show that a random approximation of the potential preserves the fast large deviation principle that guarantees the proposed integration algorithm to outperform independent or Markov quadratures. For non-singular interaction kernels, we make minimal assumptions on this random approximation, which can be the result of a computationally cheap Monte Carlo preprocessing. For the Coulomb interaction kernel, we need the approximation to be based on another Gibbs measure, and we prove in passing a control on the uniform convergence of the approximation of the potential.

In this paper, we investigate tree-indexed Markov chains (Gibbs measures) defined by a Hamiltonian that couples two Ising layers: hidden spins \(s(x) \in \{\pm 1\}\) and observed spins \(σ(x) \in \{\pm 1\}\) on a Cayley tree. The Hamiltonian incorporates Ising interactions within each layer and site-wise emission couplings between layers, extending hidden Markov models to a bilayer Markov random field. Specifically, we explore translation-invariant Gibbs measures (TIGM) of this Hamiltonian on Cayley trees. Under certain explicit conditions on the model's parameters, we demonstrate that there can be up to three distinct TIGMs. Each of these measures represents an equilibrium state of the spin system. These measures provide a structured approach to inference on hierarchical data in machine learning. They have practical applications in tasks such as denoising, weakly supervised learning, and anomaly detection. The Cayley tree structure is particularly advantageous for exact inference due to its tractability.

Kernel herding belongs to a family of deterministic quadratures that seek to minimize the worst-case integration error over a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). In spite of strong experimental support, it has revealed difficult to prove that this worst-case error decreases at a faster rate than the standard square root of the number of quadrature nodes, at least in the usual case where the RKHS is infinite-dimensional. In this theoretical paper, we study a joint probability distribution over quadrature nodes, whose support tends to minimize the same worst-case error as kernel herding. We prove that it does outperform i.i.d. Monte Carlo, in the sense of coming with a tighter concentration inequality on the worst-case integration error. While not improving the rate yet, this demonstrates that the mathematical tools of the study of Gibbs measures can help understand to what extent kernel herding and its variants improve on computationally cheaper methods. Moreover, we provide early experimental evidence that a faster rate of convergence, though not worst-case, is likely.

This paper proposes a novel framework for identifying an agent's risk aversion using interactive questioning. Our study is conducted in two scenarios: a one-period case and an infinite horizon case. In the one-period case, we assume that the agent's risk aversion is characterized by a cost function of the state and a distortion risk measure. In the infinite horizon case, we model risk aversion with an additional component, a discount factor. Assuming the access to a finite set of candidates containing the agent's true risk aversion, we show that asking the agent to demonstrate her optimal policies in various environment, which may depend on their previous answers, is an effective means of identifying the agent's risk aversion. Specifically, we prove that the agent's risk aversion can be identified as the number of questions tends to infinity, and the questions are randomly designed. We also develop an algorithm for designing optimal questions and provide empirical evidence that our method learns risk aversion significantly faster than randomly designed questions in simulations. Our framework has important applications in robo-advising and provides a new approach for identifying an agent's risk preferences.

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have played a significant role in statistics, physics, machine learning and others, and they are the only known general and efficient approach for some high-dimensional problems. The random walk Metropolis (RWM) algorithm as the most classical MCMC algorithm, has had a great influence on the development and practice of science and engineering. The behavior of the RWM algorithm in high-dimensional problems is typically investigated through a weak convergence result of diffusion processes. In this paper, we utilize the Mosco convergence of Dirichlet forms in analyzing the RWM algorithm on large graphs, whose target distribution is the Gibbs measure that includes any probability measure satisfying a Markov property. The abstract and powerful theory of Dirichlet forms allows us to work directly and naturally on the infinite-dimensional space, and our notion of Mosco convergence allows Dirichlet forms associated with the RWM chains to lie on changing Hilbert spaces. Through the optimal scaling problem, we demonstrate the impressive strengths of the Dirichlet form approach over the standard diffusion approach.

We propose a novel framework for exploring weak and $L_2$ generalization errors of algorithms through the lens of differential calculus on the space of probability measures. Specifically, we consider the KL-regularized empirical risk minimization problem and establish generic conditions under which the generalization error convergence rate, when training on a sample of size $n$, is $\mathcal{O}(1/n)$. In the context of supervised learning with a one-hidden layer neural network in the mean-field regime, these conditions are reflected in suitable integrability and regularity assumptions on the loss and activation functions.

Machine learning is the dominant approach to artificial intelligence, through which computers learn from data and experience. In the framework of supervised learning, a necessity for a computer to learn from data accurately and efficiently is to be provided with auxiliary information about the data distribution and target function through the learning model. This notion of auxiliary information relates to the concept of regularization in statistical learning theory. A common feature among real-world datasets is that data domains are multiscale and target functions are well-behaved and smooth. This paper proposes an entropy-based learning model that exploits this data structure and discusses its statistical and computational benefits. The hierarchical learning model is inspired by human beings' logical and progressive easy-to-hard learning mechanism and has interpretable levels. The model apportions computational resources according to the complexity of data instances and target functions. This property can have multiple benefits, including higher inference speed and computational savings in training a model for many users or when training is interrupted. We provide a statistical analysis of the learning mechanism using multiscale entropies and show that it can yield significantly stronger guarantees than uniform convergence bounds.

We consider a generic class of log-concave, possibly random, (Gibbs) measures. We prove the concentration of an infinite family of order parameters called multioverlaps. Because they completely parametrise the quenched Gibbs measure of the system, this implies a simple representation of the asymptotic Gibbs measures, as well as the decoupling of the variables in a strong sense. These results may prove themselves useful in several contexts. In particular in machine learning and high-dimensional inference, log-concave measures appear in convex empirical risk minimisation, maximum a-posteriori inference or M-estimation. We believe that they may be applicable in establishing some type of "replica symmetric formulas" for the free energy, inference or generalisation error in such settings.